Passage Update

     We have been concerned about a Tropical Storm forming on our path south. It continues to look like a Low, possibly attaining tropical strength, will form today or tomorrow but will move rapidly to the N-NE. It appears as though the unsettled squally weather is on the other side of the low, as we have been advised by the weather advisors. It appears as though our early action to go west has paid off. See input from Chris Parker below:

"Wx Update, Interim Tropical, Tue29, 11p
Vorticity is symmetrical and strengthening near 20N/60W, and wind-shear in this area is down to 20k, and decreasing rapidly. Strong convective T-strms are abundant, somewhat-focused (near 17N/57W), and seem to be becoming persistent at the focal point. Good news is vorticity at 5000' altitude is not co-located with focal point for convection...but this could change.

More good news is squalls have shifted well E of the Islands N of Dominica...but some isolated squalls and embedded T-strms persist from Dominica S-ward thru Grenada-Trinidad Barbados...training NE. One strong cluster is exiting Venezuela now, and will pass near and W-and-N-of-Trinidad, and could impact Tobago/Grenada/Barbados as it moves NE tonight. Isolated lesser activity lies W of 63W along Venezuela & its Islands thru ABCs.

OBSERVATIONS:
10:02p ASCAT:
Trinidad-Venezuela to 67W to waters W of Islands from Grenada-Guadeloupe mostly SW-W under 10k, but squalls to W@20-30 coming off Venezuela S of Testigos, moving NE. NW Leewards-VI-PR N-NE@5-15, highest BVIs.

BUOYs:
15N/67.5W 040@6-12, 3-4'/5-8sec / 60mi SW Nevis 010@6-12, 3-4'/5-10sec/ SStJohn 010@4-10, 3' / 21N/65W 030@9-15, 6-7'/6-9sec / StLucia airport SW@5-11, T-strms in vicinity.

DISCUSSION:
NOAA gives LO forming E of Leewards a 10% chance of becoming Tropical LO thru ThuDec1. I'll increase my assessment to 20% from the 10% chance I've suggested for most of the last 2 weeks...and evolution of this feature should follow discussion from this morning...it'll accelerate N-ward, probably staying E of 62W, and cross N of 30N, E of Bermuda, late Thu1 or early Fri2.

Thus...the only parts of E Caribbean being influenced currently (generally SE Caribbean) should see conditions settle-down significantly over the next 24hrs. However, it appears N-S-oriented TROF along which the LO will move N could enhance ITCZ-related squalls which could lie along S Caribbean from ABCs thru Windwards-Trinidad-Barbados by Thu1 night, and persist
into the weekend.

VESSELS CONTEMPLATING DEPARTING FROM BERMUDA: ColdFRONT passes Thu1,
introducing N wind...but I would wait till LO moves N of your Latitude, which suggests a Fri2 departure.

VESSELS UNDERWAY TO E CARIBBEAN: No worries as long as you lie W of
65W - and probably no big worries as long as you're W of 63W."

Jon.
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